Radiation risks of Russian liquidators of the Chernobyl accident for the period 1992-2017. Part II: Solid cancer mortality

«Radiation and Risk», 2020, vol. 29, No. 1, pp.18-31

DOI: 10.21870/0131-3878-2020-29-1-18-31

Authors

Ivanov V.K. – Deputy Director, Chairman of RSCRP, Corresponding Member of RAS
Karpenko S.V. – Engineer.Contacts: 4 Korolyov str, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249035, Russia. Tel.: (484) 399-32-81; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Kashcheev V.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Chekin S.Yu. – Head of Lab.
Maksioutov M.A. – Head of Dep., C. Sc., Tech.
Tumanov K.А. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Shchukina N.V. – Senior Researcher
Kochergina E.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Med.
Zelenskaya N.S. – Researcher
Lashkova O.E. – Researcher
Ivanov S.A. – Director, MD, Prof. A. Tsyb MRRC.
Kaprin A.D. – General Director, Academician of RAS, MD, Prof. NMRRC.

A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk
¹ NMRRC Russian Ministry of Health, Moscow

Abstract

This paper presents results of the assessment of radiation risks of mortality from solid malignant neoplasms (MNs) in the cohort of Russian emergency workers involved in the recovery operations following the Chernobyl accident (liquidators) for the follow-up period 1992-2017. The research was carried out at the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry (NRER). The cohort comprises 69,440 males entered the Chernobyl exclusion zone from 1986 over 1987, summed person-years of observation – 1,292,978, average age at arrival in the zone was 33.9 years, average whole-body external gamma-radiation dose, cumulated for the period of work in the exclusion zone was 132.9 mGy. For the follow-up period 4,272 deaths from solid cancers (ICD-10: C00-C80) were registered. Statistically significant estimates of excess relative risk (ERR) of mortality from all solid cancers per unit dose (ERR/Gy) was calculated with the linear non-threshold (LNT) model, the ag-gregate ERR/Gy=0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.19; 1.11); p=0.004). The aggregate radiation risk of mortality from 994 esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers (ICD 10: C15-C16, C18-C21) and 1,484 tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (ICD-10: C33-C34) were ERR/Gy=0.87 (95% CI: -0.01; 1.99) and ERR/Gy=0.60 (95% CI: -0.11; 1.47), respectively. Aggregate non-parametric esti-mate of relative radiation risks (RR) from all solid cancers, calculated in the dose intervals, were in agreement with the risk assessed with the LNT ERR model, taking into account 95% CI of these estimates. The age-related mortality rates in the cohort of liquidators did not differ from the corre-sponding rates in the male population of Russia. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for the fol-low-up period 1992-2017 was SMR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.97; 1.03). Further study of the cohort of liquida-tors will make it possible to assess radiation risks of mortality from cancers of different sites and to determine the statistical acceptability of the LNT risk model in the low-dose range (up to 100 mGy).

Key words
cohort studies, mortality, solid cancer, cohort of male liquidators, follow-up period, excess relative risk, nonparametric estimates of radiation risk, radiation risk, radiation dose.

References

1. ICRP, 2007. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. Ann. ICRP, 2007, vol. 37, no. 2-4, pp. 1-332.

2. Norms of radiation safety (NRS-99/2009). Sanitary rules and regulations. SanPiN 2.6.1.2523-09. Moscow, Federal Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 2009. 100 p. (In Russian).

3. Little M.P., Muirhead C.R. Evidence for curvilinearity in the cancer incidence dose-response in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Int. J. Radiat. Biol., 1996, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 83-94.

4. Little M.P., Muirhead C.R. Curvilinearity in the dose-response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Environ. Health Perspect., 1997, vol. 105, suppl. 6, pp. 1505-1509.

5. Little M.P., Muirhead C.R. Curvature in the cancer mortality dose response in Japanese atomic bomb survivors: absence of evidence of threshold. Int. J. Radiat. Biol., 1998, vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 471-480.

6. Preston D.L., Ron E., Tokuoka S., Funamoto S., Nishi N., Soda M., Mabuchi K., Kodama K. Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958-1998. Radiat. Res., 2007, vol. 168, no. 1, pp. 1-64.

7. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Gorsky A.I., Maksyutov M.A., Rastopchin E.M., Konogorov A.P., Korelo A.M., Biryukov A.P., Matyash V.A. Leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: estimation of radiation risks (1986-1995). Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 1997, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 9-16.

8. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Gorsky A.I., Maksyutov M.A., Rastopchin E.M., Konogorov A.P., Biryukov A.P., Matyash V.A., Mould R.F. Thyroid cancer among "liquidators" of the Chernobyl accident. Br. J. Radiol., 1997, vol. 70, no. 837, pp. 937-941.

9. Ivanov V.K., Rastopchin E.M., Gorsky A.I., Ryvkin V.B. Cancer incidence among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: solid tumors, 1986-1995. Health Phys., 1998, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 309-315.

10. Kesminiene A., Cardis E., Tenet V., Ivanov V.K., Kurtinaitis J., Malakhova I., Stengrevics A., Tekkel M. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods. J. Radiol. Prot., 2002, vol. 22, no. 3A, pp. A137-A141.

11. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Petrov A.V., Maksioutov M.A., Shilyaeva T.P., Kochergina E.V. Thyroid cancer incidence among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: absence of dependence of radiation risks on exter-nal radiation dose. Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 2002, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 195-198.

12. Ivanov V.K., Gorski A.I., Maksioutov M.A., Vlasov O.K., Godko A.M., Tsyb A.F., Tirmarche M., Valenty M., Verger P. Thyroid cancer incidence among adolescents and adults in the Bryansk region of Russia following the Chernobyl accident. Health Phys., 2003, vol. 84, no. 1, pp. 46-60.

13. Ivanov V.K., Gorski A.I., Tsyb A.F., Ivanov S.I., Naumenko R.N., Ivanova L.V. Solid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers residing in Russia: estimation of radiation risks. Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 2004, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 35-42.

14. Ivanov V.K. Late cancer and noncancer risks among Chernobyl emergency workers of Russia. Health Phys., 2007, vol. 93, no. 5, pp. 470-479.

15. Ivanov V.K., Gorsky A.I., Kashcheev V.V., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A. Latent period in induction of radiogenic solid tumors in the cohort of emergency workers. Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 2009, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 247-252.

16. Ivanov V.K., Chekin S.Y., Kashcheev V.V., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A. Risk of thyroid cancer among Chernobyl emergency workers of Russia. Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 2008, vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 463-467.

17. Ivanov V.K., Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Y., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A, Vlasov O.K., Shchukina N.V., Tsyb A.F. Radiation-epidemiological studies of thyroid cancer incidence in Russia after the Chernobyl accident (estimation of radiation risks, 1991-2008 follow-up period). Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry, 2012, vol. 151, no. 3, pp. 489-499.

18. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Khait S.E., Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A. Leukemia incedence in the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers. Radiat. Environ. Biophys., 2012, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 143-149.

19. Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksiutov M.A., Tumanov K.A., Kochergina E.V., Kashcheeva P.V., Shchukina N.V. Incidence and mortality of solid cancer among emergency workers of the Chernobyl acci-dent: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up of 1992-2009. Radiat. Eviron. Biophys., 2015, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 13-23.

20. Ivanov V.K., Kashcheev V.V., Karpenko S.V., Glebova S.E., Tumanov K.A., Chekin S.Yu., Maksyutov M.A., Korelo A.M., Lovachev S.S., Ivanov S.A., Kaprin A.D. Leukemia incidence and mortality of recovery operation workers of the Chernobyl accident: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up period of 1986-2014. Radiatsionnaya gygiena – Radiation Hygiene, 2018, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 7-17. (In Russian).

21. Ivanov V.K., Karpenko S.V., Kashcheev V.V., Lovachev S.S., Kashcheeva P.V., Shchukina N.V., Tumanov K.A., Kochergina E.V., Maksioutov M.A. Effect of follow-up period on minimal significant dose level and radiation risk estimate in the cohort of Chernobyl liquidators. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2018, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 24-31. (In Russian).

22. Pierce D.A., Shimizu Y., Preston D.L., Vaeth M., Mabuchi K. Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950-1990. Radiat. Res. 1996. V. 146, N 1. P. 1-27.

23. Ozasa K., Shimizu Y., Suyama A., Kasagi F., Soda M., Grant E.J., Sakata R., Sugiyama H., Kodama K. Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors, Report 14, 1950-2003: an overview of cancer and noncancer diseases. Radiat. Res., 2012, vol. 177, no. 3, pp. 229-243.

24. Grant E.J., Brenner A., Sugiyama H., Sakata R., Sadakane A., Utada M., Cahoon E.K., Milder C.M., Soda M., Cullings H.M., Preston D.L., Mabuchi K., Ozasa K. Solid cancer incidence among the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors: 1958-2009. Radiat. Res., 2017, vol. 187, no. 5, pp. 513-537.

25. Gillies M., Haylock R. The cancer mortality and incidence experience of workers at British Nuclear Fuels plc, 1946-2005. J. Radiol. Prot., 2014, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 595-623

26. Ivanov V.K., Karpenko S.V., Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksyutov M.A., Tumanov K.A., Shchukina N.V., Kochergina E.V., Zelenskaya N.S., Lashkova O.E. Radiation risks of Russian liquidators of the Chernobyl accident for the period 1992-2017. Part I: Solid cancer incidence. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2019, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 16-30. (In Russian).

27. International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health, 10th revision (ICD-10). Vol. 1 (Part 1). Geneva, WHO, 1995. 696 p. (In Russian).

28. Malignant neoplasms in Russia in 1992-2011 (incidence and mortality). Eds.: V.I. Chissov, V.V. Starinskiy. Moscow, 1994-2013. (In Russian).

29. Malignant neoplasms in Russia in 2012-2017 (incidence and mortality). Eds.: A.D. Kaprin, V.V. Starinskiy. Moscow, 2014-2017. (In Russian).

30. Breslow N., Day N. Statistical methods in cancer research. Volume II. The design and analysis of cohort studies. IARC Scientific Publication No. 82. Lyon, IARC, 1987. 406 p.

31. Preston D.L., Lubin J.H., Pierce D.A. EPICURE User's Guide. Seattle, Hirosoft International Corp., 1993.

32. Preston D.L., Lubin J.H., Pierce D.A. EPICURE Command Summary. Seattle, Hirosoft International Corp., 1993.

Full-text article (in Russian)