Dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence in the population of Russia: main risk factors

«Radiation and Risk», 2022, vol. 31, No. 4, pp.6-20

DOI: 10.21870/0131-3878-2022-31-4-6-20

Authors

Ivanov V.K. – Scientific Advisor of NRER, Chairman of RSCRP, Corr. Member of RAS, D. Sc., Tech.
Gorski A.I. – Lead. Researcher, C. Sc., Tech. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249035. Tel.: (484) 399-32-60; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
Polkin V.V. – Head of Dep., C. Sc., Med.
Andreev V.G. – Chief Researcher, MD, Prof.
Kashcheev V.V. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.
Tumanov K.А. – Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol. A. Tsyb MRRC.
Ivanov S.A. – Director of A. Tsyb MRRC, Corr. Member of RAS, MD, Prof. of PFUR Dep. Kaprin A.D. – General Director of NMRRC, Head of PFUR Dep., Academician of RAS, MD, Prof.
¹ A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk
² NMRRC, Obninsk
³ Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow
⁴ P. Hertsen MORI, Moscow

Abstract

According to GLOBOCAN 2020 Statistics based on estimates for 36 cancers incidence and mortality in 185 countries produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2020, the total number of cancer cases increased by 19.3 million new cases and the number of cancer deaths increased by 10 million new cancer deaths. According to statistics, 1 of 5 people develops cancer during their life, and one of 8 men and one of 11 women die from the disease. The cancer burden to 2040 is expected to increase by 28.4 million cases. The dynamics of incidence and mortality from malignant neoplasms in the Russia is registered by the P. Hertsen Moscow Oncology Research Institute (MORI), branch of the National Medical Research Radiological Centre of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. The data received in 2019 and 2010 were compared. The increase in cancer incidence over 10 years was 24%. However, thyroid cancer incidence surpasses other cancers incidence by 58%. The following main risk factors for potential regional induction of thyroid cancer are: the environmental situation in regions of Russia, the effects of the Chernobyl accident, and health effects of population exposed to radiation, approved with modern medical equipment. Based on epidemiological studies, it has been numerically proven that the above listed main risk factors are responsible for the significant increase in thyroid cancer incidence in Russia.

Key words
cancer incidence and cancer mortality in the population of the Russian Federation, thyroid cancer, main risk factors, multivariate epidemiological analysis.

References

1. Sung H., Ferlay J., Siegel R.L., Laversanne M., Soerjomataram J., Jemal A., Bray F. Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality or 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J. Clin., 2021, vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 209-249. DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660.

2. Malignant neoplasms in Russia in 2019 (morbidity and mortality). Eds.: A.D. Kaprin, V.V. Starinsky, A.O. Shakhzadova. Moscow, P.A. Herzen MORI, 2020. 252 p. (In Russian).

3. Ivanov V.K, Tsyb A.F. Medical radiological consequences of Chernobyl for the Russian population: assess-ment of radiation risks. Moscow, Medicine, 2002. 392 p. (In Russian).

4. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Ivanov S.I., Pokrovsky V.I. Medical radiological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Russia: estimation of radiation risks. St. Petersburg, Nauka, 2004. 388 p.

5. Ivanov V.K., Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A., Meniailo A.N., Vlasov O.K., Kochergina E.V., Kashcheeva P.V., Shchukina N.V., Galkin V.N., Kaprin A.D., Saenko V.A., Yamashita S. Thyroid cancer: lessons of Chernobyl and projections for Fukushima. Radiatsiya i risk – Radi-ation and Risk, 2016, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 5-19. (In Russian).

6. Ivanov V.K., Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A., Vlasov O.K., Shchukina N.V., Tsyb A.F. Radiation-epidemiological studies of thyroid cancer incidence in Russia after the Chernobyl accident (estimation of radiation risks, 1991-2008 follow-up period). Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry, 2012, vol. 151, no. 3, pp. 489-499.

7. Kashcheev V.V., Chekin S.Yu., Maksioutov M.A., Tumanov K.A., Korelo A.M., Kochergina E.V., Vlasov O.K., Shchukina N.V., Ivanov V.K. Radiation risk and screening effect of thyroid cancer incidence among the population of Bryansk and Orel oblasts of the Russian Federation. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2015, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 8-22. (In Russian).

8. Vlasov O.K. Radioecological model for transport of radioiodine and radiocesium in food chains after radiolog-ical accidents and discharge of radioactive substances to atmosphere for study of mechanism of formation of internal radiation doses to population. Part 4. Study of mechanism of formation doses from internal radiation exposure to population following the Chernobyl accident. Radiatsiya i risk – Radiation and Risk, 2014, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 7-27. (In Russian).

9. On the state and protection of the environment of the Russian Federation in 2019. State report. Moscow, Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia, 2020. 1000 p. (In Russian).

10. Package of statistical programs "Statistica 10", 2022. Available at: http://www.statsoft.ru (Accessed 16.08.2022). (In Russian).

11. Cardis E., Kesminiene A., Ivanov V., Malakhova I., Shibata Y., Khrouch V., Drozdovitch V., Maceika E., Zvonova I., Vlasov O., Bouville A., Goulko G., Hoshi M., Abrosimov A., Anoshko J., Astakhova L., Chekin S., Demidchik E., Galanti R., Ito M., Korobova E., Lushnikov E., Maksioutov M., Masyakin V., Nerovnia A., Parshin V., Parshkov E., Piliptsevich N., Pinchera A., Polyakov S., Shabeka N., Suonio E., Tenet V., Tsyb A., Yamashita S., Williams D. Risk of thyroid cancer after exposure to 131I in childhood. J. Natl. Cancer Inst., 2005, vol. 97, no. 10, pp. 724-732.

12. Ilyin L.A., Balonov M.I., Buldakov L.A., Bur'yak V.N., Gordeev K.I., Dement'ev S.I., Zhakov I.G., Zubovsky G.A., Kondrusev A.I., Konstantinov Y.O., Linge I.I., Likhtarev I.A., Lyaginskaya A.M., Matyuhin V.A., Pavlovsky O.A., Potapov A.I., Prysyazhnyuk A.E., Ramsaev P.V., Romanenko A.E., Savkin M.N., Starkova N.T., Tron'ko N.D., Tsyb A.F. Radiocontamination patterns and possible health consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station. J. Radiol. Prot., 1990, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 3-29.

13. Ron E., Lubin J.H., Shore R.E., Mabuchi K., Modan B., Pottern L.M., Schneider A.B., Tucker M.A., Boice J.D.Jr. Thyroid cancer after exposure to external radiation: a pooled analysis of seven studies. Radiat Res., 1995, vol. 141, no. 3, pp. 259-277.

14. Dalgaard P. Introductory statistics with R. 2nd edition. New York, Springer, 2008.

Full-text article (in Russian)